SOMALIA: No famine but trajectory remains a major concern

According to the latest findings from a joint assessment by the Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit for Somalia (FSNAU), the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) and other partners indicate that an estimated 1 025 000 people across Somalia are experiencing acute food security Crisis and Emergency (IPC Phases 3 and 4) from August to December 2014.

Within this latest findings, Over 2.1 million additional people are in acute food insecurity Stressed (IPC Phase 2) conditions in the Horn of African nation.

The findings also indicate that an estimated 218 000 children under the age of five are acutely malnourished, 43 800 of them severely malnourished and at even higher risk of morbidity and death (prevalence). These numbers of malnourished children are expected to increase to 393 000 and 76 800, respectively by the end of the year (incidence).

At present, there are no famine conditions anywhere in Somalia, nor are they imminent. However, the current trajectory of key food security and nutrition related indicators is a major concern (see table above). Several of the indicators observed in Gu 2014 are worse or as bad as they were in Gu 2010 – one year before the famine declaration of July 2011. In order to mitigate this situation, 1) timely and adequate delivery of life saving humanitarian assistance between now and the end of the year, 2) timely arrival of the expected near to above normal Deyr (October-December) rains, and 3) improved humanitiarian access and easing of the siege that continues to disrupt trade flow into urban areas recently recaptured by the Government will be crucial.

During the 2011 famine, an estimated 258 000 people died in the context of a severe drought, large-scale food insecurity and in the absence of a timely and adequate humanitarian response. One of the key lessons from the 2011 famine is that an early action, based on available early warning information, could have prevented some of these deaths. Similarly, the need for early action now to avert a further deterioration of the current food security and nutrition situation across Somalia is critical.